Analyze the Argument- Openings: This argument concludes that... It bases this prediction on two pieces of evidence... The author concludes that... As evidence for her conclusion, she / he explains that...

This argument draws a great-sounding conclusion from some flimsy-sounding evidence. - Second Paragraph: Indeed, this chain of evidence does seem to make it clear that... If the scenario described by the evidence is accurate, then the argument is quite convincing. But what is the author assuming? First, ... Second, the argument assumes that... However, the evidence cited relates only to...

and makes no reference to... Also, ... In addition, the author merely assumes that... The assumption of... is flawed because the argument fails to... Finally, ...

- End: As mentioned above, this argument is convincing if one can believe that the evidence presented is correct. Some of the assumptions linking the various pieces of evidence, however, are quite easy to undermine without additional proof in the form of evidence. To make this argument more persuasive, I would look for facts to back up the author's assertions, perhaps statistics that show how... Information about... would also be helpful in making an evaluation of the validity of the conclusion. Overall, while the evidence seems to form a solid structure of support for the conclusion of this argument, the author should seek additional facts to strengthen her / his chain of unsupported assumptions.

The first logical flaw can be simply fixed: Change the word... to... and the argument deals with probability, not certainty. The second flaw: ...

Could be remedied by some additional information, say, a reference to a study comparing... Information about... would allow for more logical leap to a conclusion about... Finally, it needs to cite some kind of statistical evidence about the percentage of... Based on those numbers, it could.