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TSUNAMI DISASTER, WHAT IMPLICATION ON ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN THIS REGION?We view with awe a release of power on this scale. We know that this power is greater than that of our species - nature holds us in its hands. We may be able to mitigate some of the consequences; in some cases we may be able to give advance warning of the threat; but we are not in control; the tsunami has demonstrated this ancient truth.William Rees-Mogg INTRODUCTION1. On the morning of December 26, 2004 a magnitude 9.3 earthquake struck off the Northwest coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra. The earthquake resulted from complex slip on the fault where the oceanic portion of the Indian Plate slides under Sumatra, part of the Eurasian Plate.
The earthquake deformed the ocean floor, pushing the overlying water up into a tsunami wave. The tsunami wave devastated nearby areas where the wave may have been as high as 25 meters (80 feet) tall and killed nearly 300,000 people from nations in the region and tourists from around the world. The tsunami wave itself also traveled the globe, and was measured in the Pacific and many other places by tide gauges. Measurements in California exceeded 40 cm in height, while New Jersey saw water level fluctuations as great as 34 cm . 2. Named the biggest earthquake in 40 years struck off the coast of North Sumatra, creating the greatest human catastrophe in living memory. The epicenter of the quake, on the shallow ocean floor, caused a major tsunami to sweep through the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
Human casualties exceeding 260,000 and massive damage to property had been reported in Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar), South Asia (India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh), Eastern Africa (Somalia and Tanzania) and the Maldives. AIM3. The aim of this paper is to examine Tsunami disaster that happened on December 26, 2005, in brief, and its implication on economic system particularly to the impact of South East Asia region. Subsequently, I will further examine the destruction of economy on short and long term impact. In realizing this, the yardstick that is use is the measurement index created by World Bank.
The paper will focus in brief to the whole country that affected by the disaster but main focus will be on South East Asia, the regional limitation as per topic given to me. At length, I will discuss on economy that effecting three larger Southeast Asian economies - Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.SCOPE4. Scope of this paper are as follows:a. Tsunami - What Are They?b. South East Asia Economic Resources.c. Aftershock And Aftermath Loses.d.
Economic Impact.e. Conclusion.f. Recommendations.TSUNAMI - WHAT ARE THEY?5. Tsunamis are not wind-generated waves. Rather, they are shallow-water waves, with long periods (time between two sucessional waves) and wave lengths (distance between two sucessional waves).
The wind-generated swell one sees at a California beach, for example, spawned by a storm out in the Pacific and rhythmically rolling in might have a period of about 10 seconds and a wave length of 150 m. A tsunami, on the other hand, can have a wavelength in excess of 100 kilometer and period on the order of one hour. As a result of their long wave lengths, tsunamis behave as shallow-water waves . A wave becomes a shallow-water wave when the ratio between the water depth and its wave length gets very small. Shallow-water waves move at a speed that is equal to the square root of the product of the acceleration of gravity and the water depth. In the Pacific Ocean, where the typical water depth is about 4,000 meter, a tsunami travels at about 200 meter per second, or over 700 kilometer per hour.
However, when the ocean is 6,100 meter deep, unnoticed tsunami travel about 890 kilometer per hour, the speed of a jet airplane. It can move from one side of the Pacific Ocean to the other side in less than one day. Because the rate at which a wave loses its energy is inversely related to its wave length, tsunamis not only propagate at high speeds, they can also travel great, transoceanic distances with limited energy losses . Physics of Tsunami 6. The phenomenon we call a tsunami (soo-NAH-mee) is a series of waves of extremely long wave length and long period generated in a body of water by an impulsive disturbance that displaces the water.
Tsunamis are primarily associated with earthquakes in oceanic and coastal regions. Landslides, volcanic eruptions, nuclear explosions, and even impacts of objects from outer space (such as meteorites, asteroids, and comets) can also generate tsunamis. 7. As the tsunami crosses the deep ocean, its length from crest to crest may be a hundred miles or more, and its height from crest to trough will only be a few feet or less. They can not be felt aboard ships nor can they be seen from the air in the open ocean. In the deepest oceans, the waves will reach speeds exceeding 970 kilometer per hour.
When the tsunami enters the shoaling water of coastlines in its path, the velocity of its waves diminishes and the wave height increases. It is in these shallow waters that a large tsunami an crest to heights exceeding 30 meter and strike with devastating force. 8. The term tsunami was adopted for general use in 1963 by an international scientific conference. Tsunami is a Japanese word represented by two characters: 'tsu' and 'nami'.
The character 'tsu' means harbor, while the character 'nami' means wave. In the past, tsunamis were often referred to as 'tidal waves' by many English speaking people. The term 'tidal wave' is a misnomer. Tides are the result of gravitational influences of the moon, sun, and planets. Tsunamis are unrelated to the tides; although a tsunami striking a coastal area is influenced by the tide level at the time of impact.
Also in the past, the scientific community referred to tsunamis as 'seismic sea waves'. 'Seismic' implies an earthquake-related mechanism of generation. Although tsunamis are usually generated by earthquakes, tsunamis are less commonly caused by landslides, infrequently by volcanic eruptions, and very rarely by a large meteorite impact in the ocean. 9. As a tsunami leaves the deep water of the open sea and propagates into the more shallow waters near the coast, it undergoes a transformation. Since the speed of the tsunami is related to the water depth, as the depth of the water decreases, the speed of the tsunami diminishes.
The change of total energy of the tsunami remains constant. Therefore, the speed of the tsunami decreases as it enters shallower water, and the height of the wave grows. Because of this 'shoaling' effect, a tsunami that was imperceptible in deep water may grow to be several feet or more in height. 10. When a tsunami finally reaches the shore, it may appear as a rapidly rising or falling tide, a series of breaking waves, or even a bore (a step-like wave with a steep breaking front). Reefs, bays, entrances to rivers, undersea features and the slope of the beach all help to modify the tsunami as it approaches the shore. Tsunamis rarely become great, towering breaking waves. Sometimes the tsunami may break far offshore. Or it may form into a bore.
A bore can happen if the tsunami moves from deep water into a shallow bay or river. The water level on shore can rise many feet. In extreme cases, water level can rise to more than 15 meter for tsunamis of distant origin and over 30 meter for tsunami generated near the earthquake's epicenter. The first wave may not be the largest in the series of waves. One coastal area may see no damaging wave activity while in another area destructive waves can be large and violent.
The flooding of an area can extend inland by 305 meter or more, covering large expanses of land with water and debris. Flooding tsunami waves tend to carry loose objects and people out to sea when they retreat . 11. Since science cannot predict when earthquakes will occur, they cannot determine exactly when a tsunami will be generated. But, with the aid of historical records of tsunamis and numerical models, science can get an idea as to where they are most likely to be generated.
Past tsunami height measurements and computer modeling help to forecast future tsunami impact and flooding limits at specific coastal areas. There is an average of two destructive tsunamis per year in the Pacific basin. Pacific wide tsunamis are a rare phenomenon, occurring every 10 - 12 years on the average . SOUTH EAST ASIA ECONOMIC RESOURCES12. The main sources of South East Asia economy is Agro-Industries, followed by tourism-industries and industrial. Saturation of Services-industries tend to be locally contained and will have relatively small or no effect on global economy. AFTERSHOCK AND AFTERMATH LOSES13.
Numerous aftershocks were reported off the Andaman Islands, the Nicobar Islands and the region of the original epicentre in the hours and days that followed. The largest aftershock was 7.1 off the Nicobar Islands . Other aftershocks of up to magnitude 6.6 continue to shake the region on a daily basis .14. The earthquake came just three days after a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in an uninhabited region west of New Zealand's sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands, and north of Australia's Macquarie Island . This is unusual, since earthquakes of magnitude 8 or more occur only about once per year on average . Some seismologists have speculated about a connection between these two earthquakes, saying that the former one might have been a catalyst to the Indian Ocean earthquake, as the two quakes happened on opposite sides of the Indo-Australian Plate .
However the US Geological Survey sees no evidence of a causal relationship .15. Coincidentally the earthquake struck almost exactly one year (to the hour) after magnitude 6.6 earthquakes killed an estimated 30,000 people in the city of Bam in Iran .16. As well as continuing aftershocks, the energy released by the original earthquake continued to make its presence felt well after the event. A week after the earthquake, its reverberations could still be measured, providing valuable scientific data about the Earth's interior .17. The reported death toll from the earthquake, the tsunami and the resultant floods varies widely due to confusion and conflicting reports, but could total of 300,000 people with tens of thousands reported missing, and over a million left homeless. Early news reports after the earthquake spoke of a toll only in the 'hundreds', but the numbers rose steadily over the following week.18.
Relief agencies report that one-third of the dead appear to be children. This is a result of the high proportion of children in the populations of many of the affected regions and the fact that children were the least able to resist being overcome by the surging waters.19. In addition to the large number of local residents, up to 9,000 foreign tourists (mostly Europeans) enjoying the peak holiday travel season were among the dead or missing, especially Scandinavians. The European nation hardest hit may have been Sweden, which reported more than 60 dead and as many as 1,300 missing .20. States of emergency were declared in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and the Maldives. The United Nations has declared that the current relief operation will be the costliest ever.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has stated that reconstruction would probably take between five and ten years. Governments and NGOs fear the final death toll may double as a result of diseases, prompting a massive humanitarian response.21. Measured in lives lost, this is one of the ten worst earthquakes in history . It is also the single worst tsunami in history; the previous record was the 1703 tsunami at Awa, Japan, that killed over 100,000 people .22. On South East Asia, the devastation wrecked on Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia by December's 2005 tsunami would have limited effect on their economies. Early estimates show that it would be about 0.25 per cent of gross domestic product. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast on February 3, 2005 that South East Asia economy would expand 6.5 per cent in fiscal year 2004 and 2005, which ends in March.23.
The western tip of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, the closest inhabited area to the epicenter of the earthquake, was devastated by the tsunami. More than 70% of the inhabitants of some coastal villages are reported to have died. More than 130,000 lives were affected. The exact number of victims will probably never be known. The number of homeless is estimated at 800,000.
Indonesian government estimates that reconstruction will cost RM17 billion over the next three years . 24. Overall growth in Indonesia could be lowered by between zero and 0.25 percentage points, while inflation should remain about 6 per cent, the IMF said. It noted that the impact of production cutbacks caused by the tsunami on GDP would be more than offset by reconstruction aid .25. The west coast of Thailand was severely hit, including outlying islands and tourist resorts near Phuket.
Some bodies may still lie in the rubble of ruined hotels. More than 5,300 are confirmed dead. More than 1,700 foreigners from a total of 36 countries are among the dead. Thailand has not asked for disaster relief aid, but it has requested technical help to identify the dead. A huge operation to take DNA samples from the bodies is under way .
26. Thailand's growth could be reduced by half a percentage point to one percentage point, taking in ...
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