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David Stern, along with 13 NBA general managers, gets to play Powerball Sunday in the annual NBA Draft Lottery. Will the Knicks, with just a 4.4 percent chance of winning the lottery, get a little home cooking? Will MJ's Wizards get an extra Ping-Pong ball or two for wiping out the luxury tax this year? Did Jerry West know something we didn't when he took the head job out there in Memphis? The NBA, in an effort to avoid the riot that would take place if the Knicks are in the first envelope, has invited a handful of media members to witness the actual drawing, the first time it has ever opened the process... but in the end, someone still will get screwed. You have to go back to the 1990 draft, when the Nets took Derrick Coleman, to find the worst team in the league drafting No. 1.

The Knicks' winning the lottery would actually be less strange than either the Bulls or Warriors taking home the honors. Last year, the Bulls had the worst record in the league and ended up with the No. 4 pick. The Warriors had the second-worst record and ended up with the No. 5 pick. In 2000, the Clippers ended with the worst record and the No. 3 pick. The Bulls had the second-worst record and drafted No. 4. The Nets, who got the No. 1 pick, had the seventh-worst record in the NBA.

In 1999, the Grizzlies were the worst team in the NBA, but could manage only the No. 2 pick. The Clippers won only nine games, but had to wait until pick No. 4 to take Lamar Odom. In 1998, the Nuggets took home the worst record honors but nabbed only the No. 3 pick. In 1997, the Spurs leapt ahead of the Grizzlies and the Celtics to grab the No. 1 pick and Tim Duncan. In 1993, the Magic grabbed the No. 1 pick with a 41-41 record, best among lottery teams.

You get the picture. With two players, Duke's Jay Williams and China's Yao Ming, during it out for the top prize, Sunday's lottery will go a long way in determining who will be the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. Both players have their pros and cons. Williams is the most NBA-ready player in the draft.

He's a proven product, can score, has an NBA body and plays a key position -- point guard. Some GM's think he " ll add 10 wins immediately to the team that drafts him. Yes, there are questions about whether he's really more of a two guard in a point guard's body. And we all know by know that he has trouble hitting clutch free throws. But he's still the best player in the draft right now. Yao is 7-foot-5.

He's a giant. Period. That alone propels him into candidacy for the No. 1 pick. That he's fundamentally sound, has a killer jumper and is still young make him a lock, right? Wrong. Some teams wonder how he " ll handle the daily pounding in the NBA.

Other GM's are spooked by all the obstacles the Chinese government keeps erecting. No one wants to blow a No. 1 pick on a guy who may not be able to play over here. If his situation isn't clearer by the day of the draft, he probably sinks. Other players such as Mike Dunleavy, Chris Wilcox, Caron Butler, Drew Gooden, Dajuan Wagner, Qyntel Woods and even Nikoloz Tskitishvili have a chance to sneak into the top 3 -- a lot of it depends on who's drafting where. Insider did some digging, talked to some teams, looked into the crystal ball and gives you our take on what each lottery team would do if it grabs the No. 1 pick. 1 t.

Chicago Bulls Number of balls: 225 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 22.5% | No. 2 pick: 20.3% | No. 3: 17.6% Who they'd take No. 1: One of the toughest teams to project. The Bulls's taff is pulling for Williams. It's hard to believe they could pass him up. The team does have an up-and-coming point guard, Jamal Crawford, but Williams is a better talent. The team needs offense and leadership, all things Williams can provide.

However, the word is that GM Jerry Krause is absolutely intoxicated with Yao's upside. Krause envisions an ultra-big lineup of Yao (7-5), Eddy Curry (6-11), Tyson Chandler (7-1), J alen Rose (6-8) and Crawford (6-6) someday. A third scenario has the Bulls selling off the pick to the highest bidder. They drafted two high school players last year and they " re awfully young.

If Yao or Williams could land them a young, All-Star caliber player (like Elton Brand, the guy they traded away last year) it might be time to start thinking about winning a basketball game or two. Who they'd take No. 2: Obviously, if they get the No. 2 pick the decision would be made for them. If Yao was still on the board it would be Yao. If Williams was still on the board then it would be Jay. Who they'd take No. 3: Mike Dunleavy. The team has been trying to get a hold of sweet-shooting small forward for the last few years.

It made an effort to grab Wally Szczerbiak and Mike Miller last summer and Dunleavy has the potential to be better than both of them. 1 t. Golden State Warriors Number of balls: 225 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 22.5% | No. 2 pick: 20.3% | No. 3: 17.6% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Despite all the speculation that Yao would the perfect fit in the Bay area, the team loves Williams.

With Larry Hughes flaming out at point guard this season, it's the team's biggest need area. Yes, Gilbert Arenas played well there at the end of the season, but he's no Jay. Who they'd take No. 2: Yao Ming. The Warriors aren't as high on him as other teams and they could pass.

But he's better than anything they have in the post right now, and from a marketing perspective, he may be able to put a few fans in the seats. If they draft him, they'd be able to move either Erick Dampier or A donal Foyle for a veteran point guard. Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox. No offense to Danny Fortson, but if the team could grab an athletic power forward who can score in the post, run the break and rebound, it " ll do it. Fortson, despite his strong rebounding skills, hasn't really fit in anyway and the Warriors would probably be able to move him this summer for a mid-level point guard. 3.

Memphis Grizzlies Number of balls: 157 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 15.7% | No. 2 pick: 15.8% | No. 3: 15.7% Who they'd take No. 1: The team, despite being one of the worst teams ever, has never won the No. 1 pick. Now that Jerry West is running the show, he might have the magic to pull it off, but who knows what he'd do? We " re used to him taking obscure players like Deve an George or Derek Fisher late in the first round. Kei Madison is intriguing, but we don't think he's worthy of the No. 1 pick, Jerry. If Yao hadn't given the Grizzlies the stiff arm, he'd be an obvious pick here.

With the retirement of Big Country, the team has a gaping hole in the middle. But the likelihood that Yao stays in China increases dramatically if the Grizzlies draft him. Williams makes sense, he's an upgrade over the other Williams, but, believe or not, league sources say West actually has a taste for White Chocolate. Go figure. Don't be surprised if they trade this away for a prospect that's a little further along. Who they'd take No. 2: Same dilemma.

My guess is that they trade it. Who they'd take No. 3: There's been a lot of speculation that the team likes Dunleavy, but I think you shouldn't count out Qyntel Woods here. He's been working out in Memphis and he's just the type of obscure pick West loves. Scouts say he could be a Tracy McGrady-type player. You gotta love that. But he's still very raw and questions about some off-court issues may scare the Gri zz away.

4. Denver Nuggets Number of balls: 120 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 12.0% | No. 2 pick: 12.7% | No. 3: 13.4% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. The team has been subtly sending out signals that it's not that high on Jay. That's bull. Its backcourt is the thinnest in the league. Whether he's a point or a two guard, it doesn't matter.

He helps the Nuggets win a few more games next year and might be good enough to convince Antonio McDyess to re-sign next summer. Kiki Vandeweghe likes him and the team has a pretty good relationship with China after bringing Men Batter over this year. Since losing Ref LaF rentz, they have no center. He's a great fit here, though I've heard that Yao didn't include the Nuggets on the short list of teams he was willing to leave China for. Who they'd take No. 3: Dajuan Wagner or Mike Dunleavy. Wagner's the next best thing to Williams.

He has the talent to go this high and he'd be instant offense for the Nuggets, regardless of what position he plays. They " re also intrigued by Dunleavy. Though small forward is less of a need (they still like James Posey), they won't have a guy who can extend the defense after Vashon Lenard takes off this summer. 5. Houston Rockets Number of balls: 89 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 8.9% | No. 2 pick: 9.6% | No. 3: 10.8% Who they'd take No. 1: Yao Ming.

This is a bit iffy. He's clearly an upgrade over Kelvin Cato and with Steve Francis manning the point, they don't need Williams. Coach Rudy Tomjanovich has has been itching to go international and knows a thing or two about coaching foreign-born centers. Who they'd take No. 2: Mike Dunleavy. League sources say the Rockets are one of the teams telling Dunleavy they'd take him very high if he entered the draft. They have a need at small forward and they have some time for him to develop with Glen Rice still hanging around.

Who they'd take No. 3: Caron Butler. If Dunleavy and Yao were gone, they " re also very high on Butler. His toughness, athleticism and energy should meld well with their high-octane backcourt. They also like Nikoloz Tskitishvili, but they could probably trade down and get him later in the lottery. 6.

Cleveland Cavaliers Number of balls: 64 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 6.4% | No. 2 pick: 7.2% | No. 3: 8.2% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Yes, they have Andre Miller, but they also have serious contract issue with him. Williams provides some of the same point guard skills and gives them a more potent scorer. Miller's value is very high around the league and the team could probably trade him for a couple of young All-Stars in training. Who they'd take No. 2: They wouldn't dare take Yao. Cleveland is Taiwan as far as the Chinese are concerned.

Wilcox, Butler or Dunleavy would all get a look here. Tyrone Hill has only one year left on his deal and the Cavs will try to shop Lamond Murray this summer, so there's a need. They haven't worked out any of these players, so it's a bit early to say who'd have the edge. Who they'd take No. 3: See No. 2.7. New York Knicks Number of balls: 44 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 4.4% | No. 2 pick: 5.0% | No. 3: 5.9% Who they'd take No. 1: Yao Ming. Sorry Knicks fans.

This will be a very unpopular pick, but Scott Layden is convinced that Yao is the answer to all of his problems. If Yao turns into the next Frederic Weis, the fans will have Layden's head on a platter. Who they'd take No. 2: Jay Williams. Yes, they have a ton of point guards, but none of them are nearly as talented as Jay. Williams wants to play in New York and Layden may be able to figure out a way to ship out either Charlie Ward or Howard Eisley.

The Knicks love him. He's the type of athletic power forward they " ve longed for. He can run the floor, bang inside and block shots. He's a bit of project, but the team will take a chance on his upside. 8. Atlanta Hawks Number of balls: 29 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 2.9% | No. 2 pick: 3.4% | No. 3: 4.0% Who they'd take No. 1: The Hawks need to win one of these top 3 picks or they " ll have to send their pick to the Clippers.

If the team does get the No. 1 pick, it's Williams all the way. Jason Terry is just more comfortable playing shooting guard and as much as I love Jacque Vaughn, he isn't the answer. Toni Kukoc is plagued by injuries and Dunleavy may be a lot closer in skill level to Kukoc than Larry Bird or Grant Hill. The team really struggled to find a consistent three-point threat and even though Dunleavy will need a few years to develop his body, he " ll still be able to play on the perimeter until he gets stronger. Who they'd take No. 3: If Dunleavy isn't around, they " ll look at Butler and maybe even Tskitishvili.

They " re set everywhere else. 9. Phoenix Suns Number of balls: 15 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 1.5% | No. 2 pick: 1.8% | No. 3: 2.1% Who they'd take No. 1: Tough decision. They " re publicly still behind Steph on Marbury, but if they could draft Williams, they might be able to swap Marbury for a strong power forward. Williams may be too good to pass up here. Who they'd take No. 2: You'd think Yao would get a look, but the word around the league is that Jerry Col angelo isn't impressed.

If that's true than they " ll go with the guy they really covet, Wilcox. The team has been searching for the past four seasons for a replacement for Antonio McDyess. He's as close as you get. Who they'd take No. 3: If Wilcox were gone for some reason, Drew Gooden might be a nice pick for them here. While he isn't quite the low-post player that Wilcox is, he's more versatile.

10. Miami Heat Number of balls: 14 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 1.4% | No. 2 pick: 1.7% | No. 3: 2.0% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. Rod Strickland and Anthony Carter are nice, but Williams has the potential to turn the Heat around right away. He's the one player that takes them from lottery team to a Finals contender right away. Who they'd take No. 2: With Alonzo Mourning on the decline it's not inconceivable that the Heat would take a chance on Yao. Riley has always liked to have size on his team and there's a good possibility that the Chinese wouldn't object to their national treasure playing for one of the NBA's best coaches.

Who they'd take No. 3: Mike Dunleavy or Caron Butler. Dunleavy gives Riley the versatility and outside shooting he covets. Butler gives him the aggressiveness and toughness he demands. If you could mold the two together, you'd have the perfect Pat Riley player. 11. Washington Wizards Number of balls: 7 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 0.7% | No. 2 pick: 0.8% | No. 3: 1.0% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams.

Michael Jordan would " ve taken him No. 1 last season and he'd do it again this year. With Chris Whitney and Tyrone Lue in the backcourt, anything is an upgrade at this point. Who they'd take No. 2: Yao would like to play in Washington, but Jordan has shown a mistrust in the past of international players. He summarily dismissed Pau Gaol as a legitimate candidate last year and has never had an affinity for big men. Instead, he'd probably go after a small forward with some size. Dunleavy and Butler are both candidates here.

Who they'd take No. 3: See No. 2 -- Dunleavy or Butler. 12. Los Angeles Clippers Number of balls: 6 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 0.6% | No. 2 pick: 0.7% | No. 3: 0.9% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. I really don't think Donald Sterling is this lucky, but if the team could land Williams, it'd be scaring the hell out everyone in the West next year come playoff time.

Why not? With the chance that he might not even come over here, he's the perfect pick for Sterling -- he might not cost him a penny. Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox or Drew Gooden. They need more size. Wilcox would give them another power player to go along with Elton Brand.

Gooden is more in the Lamar Odom mold. 13. Milwaukee Bucks Number of balls: 5 out of 1000 Odds of winning: No. 1 pick: 0.5% | No. 2 pick: 0.6% | No. 3: 0.7% Who they'd take No. 1: Jay Williams. See ya Sam.

The Bucks don't need another player who loves to chuck it up, but at least it would be an excuse to ship the moody Cassell out of town. I'm sure George Karl hates him, but the Bucks could use the interior defense. Who they'd take No. 3: Chris Wilcox would give them the athletic power forward they " ve never had.