1996 Projections Of The Populations Of Australia example essay topic

For an opinion on this topic to be formulated, one must fully understand the question. Armageddon is defined in the 2002 Brittania dictionary as 'the site and time of a final and conclusive battle between the forces of good and evil. ' The term 'environmental armageddon' must therefore be interpreted with regard to the definition but not to such an extreme. 'Environmental armageddon' refers to the end or destruction of the Australian environment and can not be put in terms of good or evil, rather the state in which the Australian environment is in. The question being asked is in reference to the desired population of Australia. Whether we need to increase or decrease the number of people in this nation.

A major opposing view to Australia being destined for environmental armageddon is that Australia will become an economic backwater unless there is a population increase. This means that, in relation to our economy, Australia will become isolated or even backward. In answering this essay I will identify the positives and negatives of changing population in Australia, weigh out the results, and formulate an educated opinion on the matter. Australia's population is on the increase.

Population growth results from two processes, natural increase and net international immigration. An average family size of 2.1 children is required over the long term to replace our population. Australia's current fertility rate is 1.85 children but Australia's average annual net overseas migration figures from 1959 to 1996 was 85,000. In this way our population has increased with a fertility rate below the replacement level.

The environment will suffer if there is a continuing increase in our population. As it is, the environment is under much strain from humans and their activities. There are so many factors contributing to the devastation of our environment. Cities are full of pollution.

A major factor contributing to Australia's problems is our use of cars. Widespread construction of roads has resulted in destruction of natural habitats. Smog and greenhouse gas emissions are a direct result of petrol and diesel fuels being used for transport. Cars have also generated a range of manufacturing technologies in the area of plastics, synthetic rubber, fuel additives and electronics. Whichever way you look at it, the state of Australia's environment is largely controlled by its people. All these industries produce massive amounts of wastes, some are even non- biodegradable.

Buildings and roads can significantly change the environment. The whole climate of an area can be altered by cities in a number of ways, creating microclimate's. Roads, car parks and rooftops can absorb energy during the day and release it at night. Office blocks trap and reflect radiant heat energy while the tar and cement that is predominant in cities is unable to absorb water. This, in turn, causes runoff, which collects all sorts of rubbish on its way down a stormwater drain and into our precious waterways.

There are so many chain reactions that occur due to human interference with the environment. Unfortunately these problems are easier caused than fixed and not enough is being done to promote a healthy Australian environment. Australians have to learn to live in harmony with the environment. At the moment we disregard, use and abuse the environment in such a way that the results may be permanent. We need to adopt a more environmentally friendly attitude if we want the next generation of people to have the same opportunities and benefits associated with a healthy environment.

There is no issue of becoming an 'economic backwater. ' When other nations have depleted their natural resources, they will be the ones with no economy. For the moment, let us concentrate on restoring our environment to the condition it was given to us, rather than exhausting it to keep up with a world economy. backwater- an isolated or backward place or condition web HOW POPULATIONS GROW The population of a country at any one time is an outcome of four basic factors: Births - An average family size of 2.1 children is required for a population to replace itself over the long term. (It is 2.1 rather than 2.0 because not every child survives to adulthood, and because more boys are born than girls-about 105 boys for every 100 girls.) Births in any one year are often summarised by a measure called the total fertility rate. This is based on the average number of children that would be born to a population of women if they were to pass through their childbearing years conforming to the age-specific birth rates of a given year.

You can think of it as average family size. Deaths - Their frequency is often summarised in terms of average life expectancy at birth. Immigration - People arriving from overseas. Emigration - People departing for overseas. Another way of putting this is to say that population growth results from two processes: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net international migration (immigrants minus emigrants).

AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION: ITS PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE SIZE Past - In 1881 there were approximately 2.3 million people in Australia. In 1901, at the time of Federation, there were 3.2 million. Present - As we draw near to the year 2000 there are around 18.5 million people in Australia. Future - We can't predict the future population of Australia exactly because any one of the four basic factors (births, deaths, immigration and emigration) may change unexpectedly, but we can project what that population would be assuming different inputs from births, deaths and net international migration. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) regularly publishes official population projections for Australia which combine different assumptions about natural increase and net migration. The series published in 1996 make the following assumptions: Deaths - average life expectancy at birth will increase by five years to 81 for men and 86 for women.

Births - births (as measured by the total fertility rate) will either remain at about the same level as they are today, an average of 1.85 children per woman, or they will fall a little to an average of 1.75 children per woman. Annual net overseas migration - this may be either 100,000, or 70,000, or nil. (The average annual figure from 1959 to 1996 was 85,000.) The migration figures used by the ABS for population projections are based on net permanent migration plus net long-term migration, plus an adjustment for category jumping. (See the section on What is net international migration? for an explanation of these terms.) The ABS call this measure "net overseas migration". The 1996 Projections From 1995 To 2051: Assumptions The different assumptions outlined above can be combined in a number of ways, but the ABS has published four sets of combinations. The extra five years of life expectancy is common to all of them, but the assumptions for births and migration vary: Series P Fertility at 1.60, nil net migration.

Series G Fertility at 1.75, nil net migration. Series I: Fertility at 1.85, nil net migration. Series three: Fertility at 1.60, net migration at 70,000 p. a. Series two: Fertility at 1.75, net migration at 70,000 p. a. Series A: Fertility at 1.85, net migration at 70,000 p. a. Series one: Fertility at 1.75, net migration at 90,000 p. a.

Series C: Fertility at 1.85, net migration at 100,000 p. a. Nil net migration does not mean no migrants. It means that permanent and long-term arrivals should balance permanent and long-term departures. (A "long-term" arrival or departure is for a trip which is temporary but which lasts 12 months or more.) Current levels of permanent emigration mean that Australia could take around 28,000 new permanent arrivals a year and still have nil net permanent migration. If the level of emigration fell, the intake figure would have to fall too. The number of residents leaving Australia on a temporary but long-term basis is much larger, around 70,000 a year.

This means that we could accept 70,000 long-term temporary visitors and still keep the net long-term figures at zero or nil. Past Growth From 1881 To 1995, And Projection Outcomes For 2051 Figure 1 shows the growth of the population between 1881 and 1995 and its projected future size under these four sets of assumptions. (In 1995 the population was 18 million.) With the first three sets of assumptions the population continues to grow and is still growing in 2051. Under Series I it peaks in 2031 at 20.7 million and, by 2051, has begun a gradual decrease. By 2051 the projected populations vary from 20.1 million (Series I) to 28.3 million (Series C), a difference of 8.2 million. However, note that population projections are educated guesses about the future, and the further into the future they are made, the less accurate they are likely to prove to be.

Figure 1: Australia's population 1881 to 1995, with projections to 2051, in millions Further reading Australian Demographic Trends, 1997, Catalogue No. 3102.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, 1997 The Australian Encyclopaedia, Australian Geographic, Sydney, 1996 (article on "Population") I. Lowe, Understanding Australia's Population Debate, (B IMPR) Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, 1996 Projections of the Populations of Australia, States and Territories: 1995-2051, Catalogue No. 3222.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, 1996 CONCLUSIONS This web site has introduced a number of key facts about Australia's population. National populations are a product of natural increase and net international migration. It is possible for a population with below replacement fertility to keep growing for more than 50 years if it begins with a youthful age structure. An older age structure is inevitable. A person's biological age is closely linked to their need to depend on others for care in early childhood. At all other ages dependency is more likely to be a product of social conventions, economic opportunities and political decisions than of biological age.

The ethnic composition of the population is changing but there is much ethnic intermixture. Internal migration and the internal distribution of the population affect patterns of settlement, especially urbanisation and the relative size of the populations of Australia's States and Territories.