China's Revaluation And Move To A Basket example essay topic

After years of speculation, China has finally dropped its peg to US dollar. The pegged value of the RMB or Yuan has been adjusted to 8.11 from 8.31. This humble revaluation of 2.5% will for the most part do little to ease the United States' trade deficit. It does however have significant political and market implications.

Most US Senators feel that the revaluation move was too small and that China needs to allow the currency to increase in value, especially since 2.5% pales in comparison to the RMB's predicted undervaluation of 30-40%. China is keeping its 0.3% percent daily trading band against the dollar, which means that even with this move there will not be a lot of volatility in the currency pair. China has many reasons to want to revalue their currency. The revaluation also makes imports cheaper for China. This comes at a critical time when commodity prices are rising. The revaluation immediately makes prices of commodities such as oil 2.5% cheaper for the Chinese.

China's move has many consequences for all of the financial markets. The most significant of which will probably be in US treasuries. China is the world's second largest holder of US treasuries. China's revaluation and move to a basket float significantly reduces their need for US treasuries and could potentially take away a big buyer from the market. If this is the case, it will cause bond prices to decrease and long-term yields to rally, which could offset some of the additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates.

If China even begins to dump US treasuries, we could see the "yield curve conundrum" begin to fix itself. 'Yield curve conundrum' refers to how Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan described the strange result that, despite six successive 25-basis-point increases in the federal-funds rate since June 2004, longer-term interest rates actually declined during the same period. The reduced demand for US treasuries and the possibility of increased demand for other currencies such as Euros and Japanese Yen could be very detrimental for the US dollar. Right now, the dollar is holding somewhat steady against the Euro due to the fact that China has yet to announce the currencies within the basket they plan to use to base the float on. Once they confirm that the Euro will be included in the basket, the single currency could skyrocket. The one major currency pair that will be impacted the most by the revaluation announcement would be the Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD / JPY) and indeed the pair slid 200 pips or points following China's announcement.

Malaysia has also stopped pegging the Ringgit to the dollar and has adopted a managed float. The revaluation of the RMB makes Japanese goods more competitive on a relative basis against Chinese goods. The stock market should have a mixed reaction. Shares of companies such as Wal-Mart and Target have and will probably continue to sell-off because the revaluation causes their cost of imports to increase.

So Wal-Mart and Target will either have to increase prices or take a cut out of profits. This might cause the US inflation rate to rise because of the increasing cost of goods. Shares of manufacturing companies that compete against China should rise along with shares of companies that are targets for Chinese acquisition. The revaluation makes it cheaper for Chinese companies to acquire US companies. This could also be very positive for the commodity markets, with the revaluation immediately reducing the cost for commodities. Pros and Cons of RevaluationProsCheaper imports: Although China has an inexpensive currency, its trade balance has been decreasing and for a few months in the beginning of 2004, it actually turned into deficit.

With the recent industrialization, there has been a large increase in machinery, metals, and petroleum imports. Over the last year, there has been a large rise in the prices of crude oil, copper, and steel. A stronger Yuan would help to offset some of the recently higher prices paid for these essential imports. Lower import prices translate to lower equilibrium prices domestically on the imports themselves and their substitutes. Because the products being imported are used in the manufacturing process, lower prices could be passed along to finished consumer goods as well. More expansion and investment overseas: One of the less obvious consequences of a stronger Yuan would be an increase in Chinese firms' investment and expansion abroad.

This is due to the fact that a stronger Yuan gives Chinese firms a greater purchasing power. After the nation's foreign reserves rose to a record $514 billion in September 2004, China recently encouraged foreign investments by loosening its controls on capital outflows. The recent takeover of IBM's PC division by Lenovo is the latest example in a string of overseas investments, which have grown by 50% since 2000. The Yuan's current value makes it expensive for Chinese firms to get involved in Foreign Directed Investments, so the government has done its best to ease the financing of such projects. Curbs inflation: Inflation in China has only recently fallen from a seven year high of 5.3% recorded last August. The country is now at a point where many dynamics are coming together to create the possibility of runaway inflation in the near future.

The low deposit rates have been encouraging consumers to put their wealth into real estate, which is offering much higher returns as housing prices grow. Consumer goods are also seeing increase in demand by customers whose marginal propensities to consume are growing as a result of higher incomes. A more physiological reasoning behind China's inflationary pressures is the one child per family law. A recent issue of Fortune magazine recognized that this law has created a generation of only children. These young adults are exposed to foreign cultures and luxury brands. They are demanding more goods which parents aren't hesitant to supply.

At this rate, the insignificant interest rate increase alone will not restrain inflation. This is where a currency revaluation could be very beneficial with constraining overheating prices and excess liquidity. Reduces Foreign Debt Obligations: Revaluing the Yuan helps to reduce some of China's dollar denominated external debt obligations. China currently owes approximately $180 billion of external debt, the value of which will be reduced by the amount of Yuan's appreciation in real terms against the major currencies especially the dollar. A revaluation of the Yuan could reduce the principal amount of foreign denominated debt by approximately 15%, assuming that the debt obligations are in US dollars, which in effect reduces China's liabilities by about $27 billion dollars. With such a potentially powerful debt reduction mechanism, China can currently borrow at fixed exchange rates and in the future artificially reduce its interest payments and principal repayments by floating its currency and let it appreciate against the majors.

Revaluation will force Chinese economy to become more productive: Although revaluation will most certainly impose some economic cost on China, it could also force China's economy to become more productive. China's economy is excessively export oriented which can be dangerous. Although Japan is the 2nd biggest economy in the world and one of the world's richest nations, Japan has suffered from chronic deflation and three recessions in the last decade because its emphasis on the export sector left the country's internal demand underdeveloped. If China's economy is too dependent on exports they could incur a huge transitional cost if global demand suddenly drops off - leading to a possible depression throughout the whole economy.

By letting its currency revalue, China will not only be able to diversify its economy to a more balanced mix of domestic and export industries, but it will also make the export sector more productive. The rise in the value of the Yuan could hurt Chinese manufacturers, as export prices rise. At first Chinese manufacturers will have to absorb most of the cost in their profit margins. However, by forcing industry to compete on quality rather than allowing it to obtain a competitive advantage mainly as a result of lower currency, the Yuan revaluation will make Chinese manufacturers much more productive and efficient.

Cons Hard Landing Stops Growth: The Chinese economy is heavily export-dependent, and the nation requires strong output growth for jobs for the millions of underemployed people in rural areas. Many state enterprises also employ surplus workers, and the IMF predicts the unemployment situation will only worsen. A stronger Yuan would makes Chinese goods more expensive to foreign purchasers, curbing the quantity of output demanded and therefore hurting exports. A drop in revenue would make it more difficult for Chinese firms to turn profits and if they were to respond by firing current employees or by no longer hiring new ones, the unemployment rate would rise.

The economy is currently growing at over 9%, but even a slight decrease in output might shock the labor market and growth. Especially in the short run, a stronger Yuan would increase the cost of labor and of foreign direct investment. Disastrous for Un hedged Firms: China's financial markets, which are too new and immature, cannot handle a quick revaluation. Currency risk is a concept that's very foreign to Chinese companies especially since, for the past 9 years, it was not a applicable concept to them at all with the Dollar peg. If the Chinese central bank revalued suddenly, it would be disastrous for the countless number of un hedged, financially primitive firms. Of course, the government has recognized and is trying to deal with this issue.

The Chinese government unveiled a new set of rules enabling foreign banks to directly trade derivatives with domestic firms. The new regulations allow for credit, fixed income, and currency derivatives and most importantly, hedging instruments. Even if these products are available in the near future, it will take some time to get the word out and properly protect China's export-sensitive firms against revaluation losses. Increases Value Of Non-Performing Loans and a Decrease in USD Assets: A revaluation of the Yuan increases the risk for default on non-performing loans for the country's banking sector. China's banking system has a significant amount of non-performing loans and although there's been a mobilization to solve this problem, with many of the non-performing loans being exported and bought by large US investors, it is still a problem that exists to some extent. An increase in the value of the Yuan will automatically increase the value of the non-performing loans.

Also, the Chinese government has massive amounts of US dollar assets, which they used to peg the Yuan. These assets will lose value in proportion with the revaluation of the Yuan. This is only the beginning of China's revaluation. China will be repeatedly pressured to institute a larger revaluation. The managed float allowed them to gradually adjust the value of the Yuan without major sudden changes to their economy. Central banks worldwide are going to be eager to take the Yuan as a reserve currency because it is guaranteed to go up in relative value.

With the U.S. running massive federal and trade deficits, central banks around the globe are eager to diversify away from the dollar..