Judgments And Decisions example essay topic

Class: BUS 300-20: Decision Making Assignment Description: For this assignment think of an important business decision you have made in the past in which the results of your decision turned out poorly. Your manager is concerned and wants to make sure that you learned from this mistake and the likelihood of this happening in the future is minimal. Therefore she would like you to email her a reflective analysis about that decision. Be sure to address the following in your analysis: 1. Describe the decision and its relative importance to you as the decision maker. (1 paragraph) 2.

Use three different theories associated with this unit's resources and readings to illustrate your decision making process. (3 paragraphs). 3. Compare and contrast your understanding of judgment and / or decision making using these three different theoretical approaches.

(3 to 4 Paragraphs) 4. What does this imply about our understanding of how to make judgments and decisions? (1 to 2 Paragraphs). 5. How will knowledge of this analysis help you to make better decisions in the future? (1-2 paragraphs) 1.

The decision was made when I was a Production Supervisor. Quality of product was getting much attention due to many customer complaints as a result many standards were put into practice. In an effort to reduce the customer complaints, all employees were expected to follow the new standards. Even though the standards were in place we received yet another complaint.

I was able to trace the complaint to an individual and although, according to the documentation all the standards were followed, I concluded that the paperwork was erroneous. I disciplined the employee with three days off without pay however, the disciplinary action was used more an example to the rest of the workforce as opposed to an attempt to change the employees behavior. 2. First, I made assumptions regarding the honesty of the individual.

This judgment was context dependent in that it was made relative to the data available and the behavior of his co-workers. My conclusion that this person was dishonest was derived from assumptions and the contrast effect. Second, in my attempt to eliminate risk, the certainty effect of the prospect theory was exercised. The information available led to the decision to reduce to probability of recurrence.

"A result of the probability of an outcome by a constant factor has more impact when the outcome was initially certain that when it was merely probable". (Tverskoy & Kahne man, 1985, Plous, 1993, p. 99) Third, I feared what would happen if nothing was done. What would my employees think? Am I a pushover? Will more complaints occur? In order to avoid these questions and any resulting regret the decision was made based on the regret theory (Plous, 1993 p. 101).

3. My understanding of the judgment was based on the surrounding context. The baseline for the behavior of the employee was determined by a reference point, being the conduct of his co-workers. Second, even though the probability of another complaint was not reduced I naively chose work with the available data and assumptions. I would have liked to get more of an objective picture. Third, I needed to understand the full implications of the decision.

In this case my fear of how my actions would be perceived outweighed the real issue and what truly needed to be done to correct it. In fact the regret theory probably had the strongest effect in that I believed that making an example of an individual would ensure good behavior from his co-workers. 4. Stress induces judgments. In this decision my stress was created by the need to do something to stop complaints. This judgment was made on assumptions and incomplete information which leads to potentially moral and ethical implications.

5. Any assumptions used in decision making should be weighted with the lowest value and used with the utmost caution. Using people to change the behavior of others is unfair to everyone. It is far more effective to empathize with the employee when making judgments than to assume deceit.