Limited National Missile Defense System example essay topic

National Missile Defense (NMD) is once again a growing concern in America. There have been many new developments since the post-Cold War elimination of nuclear warfare. This diminishing of arms however, is a very fine line. The United States cannot afford to have less capability then the rest of the world, but it does want to encourage unilateral non-proliferation of nuclear arms. In addition, there is a new awareness of rogue nations that are completely unpredictable. Since the post-Cold War the United States has been able to rely on the major nations and more or less predict if they are a threatening adversary or not.

In any case, this doubt has caused the new investigation of a possible deployment of a National Missile Defense. This movement is a huge strategic, technical, and political decision. The consequences of such a decision will indeed effect the next generations. In the recent decades many treaties have come to rise, all of which have played an important part in the growing concern of nuclear arms and the defense of American soil. History The history of ballistic missile defense is much involved and began shortly after World War II. In the 1950's the Soviet Union was able to deploy submarine-based missiles capable of hitting the United States.

In the 1960's this same arsenal appeared and expanded rapidly to land based systems. These moves by the Soviet Union spurred a huge need for ballistic missile defense programs in the U.S. In 1972 President Nixon and General Secretary Brezhnev signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. This forbids a nationwide missile defense between the United States and Russia. The treaty called for each country to build two sites that could attempt to protect limited areas. In 1974, it was amended allowing for: Each may only have on missile defense deployment site with that site prohibited from providing a nationwide missile defense system or becoming the basis for developing one At the allowed site, no more than 100 launchers / missiles may be deployed and guidance radars must be within a circle with a diameter of 150 kilometers New early warning radars may only be deployed on the periphery of national territory and oriented outward Non-nationwide missile defense systems may not be given nationwide capability or tested in a nationwide mode The transfer of missile defense components to and deployment in foreign countries is prohibited Development, testing, or deployment of sea-based, air-based, mobile land-based, or space-based missile defense systems and their components is prohibited During the Cold War, this treaty proved effective because both nations understood that a building of missile defense encourages offensive force. As long as the capability of defending oneself against nuclear attack was preserved, each would be deterred from attacking the other.

Limited national defense programs such as President Johnsons Sentinel system followed the previous Presidential systems of the Nike X and Nike Zeus programs. All of these were redesigned by Nixon's Safeguard initiative. On October 1, 1975, the Safeguard System using interceptors with nuclear warhead tips were deployed. However in January of the following year, the House of Representatives and the Senate voted to close it down because the nuclear-tipped interceptors would blind Safeguards own radar systems for navigation.

These systems repeatedly failed to develop a missile defense that could cope with long-range missile attacks. The security of the American people was at stake. Because each was lacking a capable defense, a race started in the build-up of tens of thousands of nuclear warheads. The United States and Russia maintained large nuclear arsenals of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. In the late 1970's the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty arose between the United States and Russia. For over ten years there was debate over the specifics of what the treaty was to include.

Each nation was reluctant to give up their new technologies that they had given so much time and money in developing. However after years of confusion and frustration, President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev signed the treaty at a summit meeting in Washington on December 8, 1987. At the time of its signature, the Treatys verification regime was the most detailed and stringent in the history of nuclear arms control, designed both to eliminate all declared INF systems entirely within three years of the Treatys entry into force and to ensure compliance with the total ban of possession and use of these missiles. This included the required destruction of the Parties ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, their launchers and associated support structures and support equipment. The Treaty entered into force upon the exchange of instruments of ratification in Moscow on June 1, 1988. On December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union was disbanded and therefore the treaty needed to be reaffirmed.

The United States sought to secure continuation of full implementation of the INF Treaty regime and to multilateral ize the INF Treaty with twelve former Soviet republics. Of the twelve, six including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan have INF facilities and are participants of the Treaty. Of important mention is the inspection process by which these countries adhere. All members of the INF Treaty have agreed to on-site inspections, short-notice inspections of declared and formerly declared facilities, and elimination inspections to confirm elimination of INF systems in accordance with agreed procedures. Although the United States and the former Soviet Unions arsenals have declined substantially from their Cold War peaks, both still remain at levels far in excess of any reasonable current military requirement. The United States is helping Russian military safely dismantle much of its nuclear arsenal.

From a peak of nearly 70,000 nuclear warheads in the late 1980's the total number of U.S. and Russian warheads has declined to about 30,500 today. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was drafted in 1991 and entered into force in 1994; this treaty reduced strategic nuclear arsenals including land-based long-range missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, heavy bombers, warheads for strategic land and sea-based missiles, and heavy bombers built up during the Cold War. The START process has substantially reduced the Russian nuclear threat to the United States. Because of START I, the United States and Russia are each dismantling approximately 2,000 nuclear warheads every year. START II was then proposed and signed in 1993 and entered into US force in 1997. Russia ratified it this past year.

It cut arsenals to 3,500 or fewer deployed strategic weapons on each side. At the same time the United States and Russia are discussing a START, which could lead to even further cuts. In that treaty, Russia and the United States may agree that warheads cut will be accompanied by the verified dismantlement of the decommissioned weapons and the transfer of their fissile material to monitored storage to prevent reuse in other weapons. After START, China, the United Kingdom, and France, as well as India, Pakistan and Israel, may also be brought into the nuclear arms control process. Far more missiles have been destroyed through diplomacy in recent years than any missile defense system could ever hope to intercept. Another political movement to curb nuclear warfare is the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

This is a voluntary agreement that seeks to stop the transfer of the delivery systems of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). These systems include missiles, unmanned air vehicles, and related technology capable of carrying a 500-kilogram payload a distance of at least 300 kilometers. Currently 32 countries participate in the MTCR including Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, China and Japan. Current Situation Currently the United States does not seem to have a firm assessment of where it want to take its National Missile Defense program. There are huge factors to weigh in the decision. Looking back for the Cold War days, the United States knows that any National Missile Defense program deployed could result in a Chinese Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) build-up, a nuclear arms race in South Asia, and pressure on countries like Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear weapons.

Many of the treaties and understandings that have kept the nuclear peace for forty-five years may be lost forever. Thus, this decision is of the utmost importance. On September 1st of this year President Clinton declined the United States move toward a deployment of the proposed limited national missile defense. The Clinton Administration had previously proposed to have a working system by late 2005.

His decision was based on four main criteria: the readiness of technology, the impact of deployment on arms control and relations with Russia, the cost of the system, and the threat. The readiness of technology played a huge role in President Clintons decision. Effective missile defense can be compared with hitting a bullet with a bullet. Warheads of long-range missiles travel at speeds of up to 15000 mph. The US proposal calls for a kinetic kill in which the interceptor must hit the warhead. In February 1998 the Pentagon appointed a panel to review the national missile defense programs.

This panel found a rush to failure approach was being undertaken. In 1999 that same panel was asked to reassess the program. Once again the program found the Pentagons approach to be extremely risky stating, the DR should be regarded more as feasibility decision with some long-term deployment actions rather than a readiness decision. In February 2000 the Pentagons Director of Operational Testing and Evaluation express similar concerns. Namely that unrealistic pressure is being placed on this defense system because it is schedule driven rather than event driven.

It called for more time and a more thorough analysis. So the question arises, What makes a national missile defense system technically ready The Clinton Administration said that it must: The involved technology must be mature; it must work on a basic level It must operate effectively in the real world and work against several missile equipped with readily-available countermeasures It must be fully reliable and work consistently The Pentagon plans to conduct 19 intercept tests prior to completing deployment of the national missile defense in 2005. However, only three were conducted prior to Clintons decision. The first on October 2, 1999, test only the exo atmospheric kill vehicle. This is the part that actually hits the incoming warhead.

No ground-based radars, satellite-based infrared sensors, and communications systems were integrated into the test. Instead, a global positioning transmitter was attached to the booster to pinpoint it own location. In addition a balloon decoy was launched with the mock warhead. The test results conclude that the interceptor found the balloon from space and thus was able to find the mock warhead. However, the balloon was much larger than the warhead and many testers doubt that the interceptor would have been able to find the warhead had the balloon decoy not be launched as well. The second test on January 18, 2000 provided terrible results.

The kill vehicle failed to hit the mock warhead. In this test, the ground-based radars were used, along with the battle management system. According to the Pentagon, a malfunction in the infrared sensors caused the miss. The third test, was yet another failure. The diagram below explains what should have occurred versus what actually occurred.

1) A modified Minuteman II intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a mock warhead and a decoy was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., around 9: 15 p.m. Pacific Time. 2) Space-based and ground-based radar attempt to detect, identify and track the simulated threat. 3) Some 20 minutes later, the intercepting "kill vehicle" was launched on a missile from Kwajalein Atoll, about 4,300 miles away in the southern Pacific Ocean. The kill vehicle was supposed to separate from the missile, but failed to do so. 4) Sensors on the kill vehicle were to have guided it toward the target warhead, rather than the decoy.

The two objects were supposed to collide at 12,000 miles per hour, 140 miles above the Pacific Ocean. This apparent technological insufficiency helped lead Clinton to the decision to decline the implementation of the national missile defense. The second criterion that was evaluated was the impact of development of arms control. Since the Cold War, many treaties have been signed and understandings have been made. With the US possibly developing a national missile defense, the stable balance that has been yearned for will again be interrupted.

To build such a defense, the United States must get either Russian agreement to modify the ABM Treaty, or withdraw from it. Currently, the United States wants to preserve the Treaty because the US Administration feels it is the cornerstone of strategic stability. Yet the initial phase of the Clintons Administrations propose national missile defense would violate the ABM Treaty in three ways: 1) The system attempts to protect the entire territory of either country 2) It will deploy interceptors in Alaska besides the one in North Dakota 3) Upgrading and deployment of radar systems around the globe to strengthen early warning and guidance capabilities These are just the first phase. The second phase of the system would violate even more requirements because of the 250 interceptors in Alaska and North Dakota and more radars and satellites. However, the Clinton Administration contends that these moves are fully consistent with the intent and purpose of the ABM Treaty. This contention is viewed by Russia as a shaky situation.

In February 2000, Secretary of State Albright met with Russian President Putin and he stated that he might consider modifications to the Treaty, as long as its fundamental principles were maintained. Yet in June, the 2000 Clinton-Putin summit in Moscow showed no hint of such an agreement. The most likely avenue for Russian agreement on ABM Treaty changes would be an exchange for US concessions on START. Russia may to agree if the warhead limit set in START was reduced to 1500. However the US resists this idea. Even if the US and Russia can make an agreement on this matter, the US would likely face a backlash against missile defense from China and still may face strong questions from US allies such as France and Germany.

The Chinese reaction is crucial because Chinese leaders have expressed strong opposition to US proposals to missile defense. Sha Zu kang, director of the arms controlled department of the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs stated: Some enthusiastic advocates of national missile defense in the US have repeatedly claimed that China is a main target for the development of national missile defense by the US, because they think national missile defense, with its limited capacity may be very effective if used to guard against the potential threat posed by Chinas limited nuclear capability. This kind of Cold War logic will seriously undermine the positive coordination and cooperation between China and the United States in relevant fields over the years. Furthermore, if the situation so demands, China will have no choice but to review a series of policies on arms control, disarmament, and prevention of proliferation. China is already in the process of slowly modernizing its nuclear arsenal to include longer-range missiles, some with multiple warheads. The pace and size of these increases, along with the use of countermeasures, could be accelerated in response to deployment of a US national missile defense.

A larger Chinese arsenal could also pressure Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, and India to react with their own subsequent measures. In addition, Western allies have also expressed concern about US deployment of a national missile defense system. Primarily they are concerned with a new arms race and increased tensions with Russia. Along with wreaking havoc on the nuclear arms reduction process the US abrogation of the ABM Treaty could dangerously undermine the non-proliferation regime. Under the NPT the five declared nuclear weapon states China, France, Russia, The United Kingdom, and the United States agreed to pursue nuclear disarmament.

This is a major concern because the US has been attempting to persuade China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan to ratify their testing of nuclear weapons. In essence if the US builds a national missile defense system, new threats will arise and the post-Cold War structure for controlling nuclear and missile technology and weapons will be undone. Prospects for mutual, cooperative steps to reduce nuclear dangers outside the treaty process would also diminish sharply. The cost of the national missile defense is an overwhelmingly difficult issue for the American people.

Since 1983, the US has spent $69 billion and yet no system has ever been fielded. Almost all of the money has gone towards the research and development of potential systems, rather to their production. In May 2000, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the Clintons Administrations proposal would cost almost $30 billion for just its first phase and $60 billion for phases thereafter. The main reason for the Clinton Administration to propose a limited national defense was to cut cost.

They understood why the Strategic Defense Initiative was shut down, and wanted to avoid such a drop. Despite the Clinton Administrations efforts, the Pentagon generally tends to underestimate development and acquisition costs by 15 to 20 percent. In looking at national missile defense, past estimates have been underestimated by as much as 30 percent. Then the issue arises of cost effectiveness. The US spends more annually on missile defense than the estimated total military budgets of North Korea and Iraq combined. Even so North Korea can be expected to afford technologies that may render the initial phase of US defense ineffective.

This is true no matter how large a defense system the United States builds. Offense is always cheaper than defense. The fourth and final criterion is the threat that the US has from other countries deploying nuclear missile attacks. Russia maintains 2,000 strategic nuclear warheads on high alert, together capable of destroying the United States in under an hour.

No plausible missile defense could defend such an attack. The national missile defense proposed is not designed to counter such an attack; instead it is designed to stop a threat by a few tens of warheads. Such an attack could come from North Korea, Iran, and Iraq, or from an inadvertent launch by Russia or China. Currently Iran and Iraq are not in the position to launch such efforts.

North Korea has willingly agreed to freeze its missile flight test program while discussions with the United States continue. In addition Argentina and Brazil were competitively pursuing nuclear weapons in the late 1980's and early 1990's. However, diplomatic persuasion led both countries to end their search. Economic factors also have reduced the threat from many countries.

During the Gulf War the Allies bombed the Iraqi oil refineries, which cut their national revenue, causing less nuclear development. The biggest concern of foreign threat is the new formation of rogue nations. The presumption is that these nations are irrational. They will develop missiles capable of hitting the United States and use them despite the almost certain devastating consequences.

A January 19, 2000 statement by US Deputy Secretary of Defense John Ham re explains why North Korea is a threat: North Korea is a legitimate source of worry about a surprise missile attack, since it has invested heavily in developing a long-range missile capability, even though no on is threatening it and even while many of its people are starving. There is no rational reason why North Korea, with the economic straits that they are in, would choose such a provocative thing to do. This is a country that doesnt care about the opinion of the international community and therefore must be judged capable of attacking the United States unprovoked. With this view, the United States has little choice of how to deal with North Korea.

It is a dictatorship with a large army. It also is a leading concern in the proliferation of nuclear warheads because it exports missiles. Its leadership is isolated and difficult to work with. It has engaged in terrorist activities, and it frequently violates minor military provocations against South Korea.

In this light, the US must build a national missile defense. Another threat addressed by Clintons Administration is a terrorists ransom. If the leader of a country blackmailed the US by aiming a nuclear missile at a US city, the US would have to make a decision about the true capability. Is it a bluff or not They would have to comply or be ready to launch their own defense. For example, the question arises if the US would have attacked Iraq if Saddam Hussein had had a nuclear-tipped missile. To avoid this contingency, the argument is that the US should build a limited nationwide missile defense.

In looking at the broader perspective of threats, the United States is a very fortunately country. We have huge oceans on either side so there are few threats to its soil. This long distance from threatening countries focuses the threats that the United States will encounter to missiles. The Clinton Administration contends that while dangers exist within the boarders like the bombing at the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City, the US has interests and allies around the globe. In addition, US security as a whole depends not only on military force, but also on financial ties, trade relations, and international cooperation. The US is inextricably linked to the global economy.

For these reasons, the Clinton Administration proposed a limited national missile defense system. Yet, as a closer look was given to these four main criteria, it became apparent that the US is not currently ready for such a system. The consequences and uncertainties in all four of these factors played a huge role in the decision process. On September 1, 2000, President Clinton announced that he would delay the national missile defense. He urged the US Armed Forces to continue in their develop of new technologies that might make such an advancement possible, but ultimately reserved the national missile defenses future for the next President. Whether Al Gore or George Bush officially wins this next election, one will most likely decide the fate of the national missile defense.

One will have to weigh the evidence and conclusions drawn by these three tests and these four criteria. Countermeasures Countermeasures to a nuclear attack on the United States have been a major focus of the United States for nearly 40 years. In many cases the suspected ICBMs and other traditional methods may not be used in a nuclear attack on the US. As early as 1964 the US was reportedly was spending 300-400 million dollars on countermeasures. The Union of Concern Scientists has done an exhaustive study on countermeasures against ground based, terminal phased missile defense systems. Countermeasures can be summarized in two main claims: 1) Simple countermeasures will defeat the US National Missile Defense system in its presently proposed configuration.

2) Any rouge state that could mobilize the human and technological resources to develop a nuclear tipped long-ranged ballistic missile would have no difficulty in developing and deploying. Before discussing the technical issues and countermeasures, it is important to note that critics of Countermeasures state that the NMD configuration is not frozen in its current design features. There argument is that no major weapon system is ever static: it grows and evolves from its original base line configuration in response to its growth of threats. Thus, from their point of view, it is reasonable to assume that the US designers will react to the new challenging countermeasures. When discussing the vulnerability of the United States and simple countermeasures, simple is the chosen word because the implementation of such a measure because of the relative easiness there is when comparing to building an ICBM with a nuclear warhead. In short, to build an ICBM there must exist highly experience scientists and engineers all with vast abilities.

If this is the case and such technicians are available, then the progression to implementation would in fact be simple. Countermeasures discusses many different ways in which missiles could bypass our defense system and hit US soil. These different methods are debated frequently. Some say that they are feasible today, yet others argue that most if not all are not realistic today. In any case, this exhaustive study does not include certain more secretive ways of targeting the United States with nuclear warheads. For instance, if countries were to attack the United States by way of the United States Postal Service or some other mail carrier.

If a warhead can be made, certainly it can be smuggled into the US borders. Also, it could be transported via ship cargo. As mentioned before, the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City bombing never should have happened. These incidents should not have been possible. Yet, they did occur. They did take the lives of innocent Americans.

So what is to be done How can the United States defend against such a childish and cowardly act In March 1995, US Customs agents in Miami launched a two-year undercover investigation reaching into high-level official circles in Russia, Bulgaria and Lithuania. It would become the first credible case of a scenario to smuggle tactical nuclear weapons into the United States. Although the undercover officials obtained many arms, no nuclear weapons could be brought back because U.S. national security policy prohibits any sting operation that might bring nuclear devices or material onto American soil. In the end, evidence was provided to the US government that such dealings could, in fact, occur. The source of these cowardly attacks will most likely be from former Soviet Union missiles.

During the political break up into individual nations, much conflict arose that allowed for the stealing of nuclear weapons and equipment. Chris Wallace, Chief Correspondent of 20/20 interviewed a black market nuclear arms dealer, Tatiana, for Primetime Live television. In the interview goes as follows: Chris Wallace: So if I come to Moscow and I have enough money, what can I buy Tatiana: Everything. Chris Wallace: Everything Uranium Tatiana: No problem. Chris Wallace: Plutonium Tatiana: Yes Chris Wallace: Nuclear Triggers Tatiana: No trouble. Without any problem.

Chris Wallace: Youre saying that I can buy the materials. Tatiana: In order to do good bombs. Yes. This interview shows the terrible resources available in Russia. It can reasonably be assumed that such areas of the world are not only limited to Russia. Some say that Germany is another possibility.

Despite how many areas provide such resources, one would be enough to cause serious problems to the United States. If one thing is certain, merely one nuclear warhead can cause catastrophic damage. So then what is the United States to do How can they stop such countermeasures to the national defense Is it possible It is terribly difficult to find answers to such a difficult question. No American politician wants to address such a problem because there seems to be no solution. No one wants to be the bearer of bad news. It is essentially an unspoken area.

Regardless of possible countermeasures, the United States seems to feel that some type of National Missile Defense is necessary. How much or how little is still a question to be answered. Advocates of a new NMD would argue that the lives of the American people are at stake and therefore little concern should be given to a price. They see an American dream that should be preserved and an American dominance that should continue as the global leader in the pursuance of active defense. There are still those however, who seem to see the practicality of a NMD. They reflect upon the history of missile defense systems and see previous failed versions and the growing costs of such new initiatives.

They know the test results of the first three Pentagon tests and doubt the highly sophisticated technology involved in the process. They may also even know the treaties that the United States has signed, and in some cases drafted, and the US can only continue with new programs if they rewrite these treaties or back out of them. In any case, it will take rigorous meetings to maintain balance and control of the worlds pursuance in similar defensive and offensive strategies. These critics also see the countermeasures and loopholes available to those who really want to attack the United States. So these two sides are to be weighed by the next President of the United States.

Bibliography

Biden, Senator Joseph R. Jr. The Disturbing Trend of Judicial Imperialism and The Unreliability of a National Missile Defense System. A Choice for the Generations: Presidential Election 2000.
August 2000.
Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense System. Union of Concerned Scientists. MIT Studies Program: April 2000.
Rubin, Uzi. Comments on the UCS Report on Countermeasures. July 2000.
Rupp e, David. Key Missile Defense Test Under Way. web ABC News Internet Ventures: July 7, 2000.
Russian Nuclear Smuggling. Trade and Environment Database. web Case Number 271, Case Mnemonic: NUKES MUG, Case Name: Russian Nuclear Smuggling. American University: 2000.
Wilken ing, Dean A. How Much Ballistic Missile Defense Is Too Much CISA C: October 1998.
Young, Stephen W. Pushing the Limits: The Decision on National Missile Defense. Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers: July 2000 (second printing).