Uncertainty In Decision example essay topic

Decision-making was long viewed as an art form. Of course there was analysis and research, but often the final call came down to a gut feeling. The science of decision-making is now catching up with the art, and we are now better able to understand why we decide the way we do. Sometimes good people make bad decisions: there was ample evidence that regulators, shareholders, employees, customers, and vendors could have seen that something was not right at Enron, WorldCom, and other scandal-plagued companies.

But almost none acted on that evidence. Why? In other instances, executives made-and stuck to-decisions that the available evidence said would be bad ones but that, in the end, turned out to be right. Can you develop such an instinct? Almost all (important) decision problems involve some level of uncertainty either about data measurements, the values to assign to parameters describing future evolution or even about the environment in which one has to operate. The main objective of this workshop is to set up a dialogue between Industry and Academia about modeling issues and the supporting mathematical methodology that would be useful to deal with uncertainty in decision making.

This workshop will be centered around problems where the uncertainty is of a technological nature, in particular as it comes up in the production of energy, the extraction of natural resources and (ground) water remediation. Both practitioners and scientific researchers will be involved, and the interaction between these groups will be an important feature of the workshop. The first day will be devoted mostly to a review of the major issues that must be dealt with when setting up stochastic optimization models. This will be followed by a limited number of invited lectures that will address more specific models and questions as they arise in applications. Other lecturers will provide a description of the numerical procedures and strategies that have been developed for certain classes of stochastic programming problems. To foster interaction, time has been reserved for two panel discussions, for impromptu talks, contributed talks and more informal exchanges between the participants.

What are the psychological biases and triggers that influence our decisions? How reliable are our "gut instincts" - and are they becoming less so? Are there structural obstacles to the adoption of good new ideas? If so, what are they, and how can you overcome them? How can you identify the factors that cause you to make your decisions?

How can a better understanding of the science of decision-making help you develop a more productive framework for making the decisions about that next merger or acquisition, plant site, new-product launch, or other critical business decision?